Showing posts with label dick morris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dick morris. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Huckabee's Fiscal Restraint?

One long-standing 2008 controversy is over the nature of Huckabee's tax hikes and cuts, the context, and impact they may have had on Arkansan voters. He has managed to make enemies with two influential organizations: the libertarian CATO Institute and the venerable conservative economic lobbying group the Club for Growth (the latter of which I'm a member).

I've long had criticisms on some Huckabee positions. The remarkably articulate Governor has gone Dan Quayle a couple of times on fiscal issues ("I support Free Trade, but it must be Fair Trade"), and his baseless income inequality rhetoric is disturbing.

However, as I learned when dealing with the customer relations desk at Wal-Mart, rhetoric is secondary to the bottom line. That line is policy action. Extraordinarily admirable policy stances such as the FairTax have earned a good deal of respect for the Governor from me. Nothing in the Club's report, when conisdered in context, would keep me from voting in for him in a general election.

Dick Morris, for whom I have limited respect--but occasionally he's insightful, had some interesting refutation in this week's column:

A recent column by Bob Novak excoriated Huckabee for a “47 percent increase in state tax burden.” But during Huckabee’s years in office, total state tax burden — all 50 states combined — rose by twice as much: 98 percent, increasing from $743 billion in 1993 to $1.47 trillion in 2005.

In Arkansas, the income tax when he took office was 1 percent for the poorest taxpayers and 7 percent for the richest, exactly where it stood when he left the statehouse 11 years later. But, in the interim, he doubled the standard deduction and the child care credit, repealed capital gains taxes for home sales, lowered the capital gains rate, expanded the homestead exemption and set up tax-free savings accounts for medical care and college tuition.

Most impressively, when he had to pass an income tax surcharge amid the drop in revenues after Sept. 11, 2001, he repealed it three years later when he didn’t need it any longer.

He raised the sales tax one cent in 11 years and did that only after the courts ordered him to do so. (He also got voter approval for a one-eighth-of-one-cent hike for parks and recreation.)

He wants to repeal the income tax, abolish the IRS and institute a “fair tax” based on consumption, and opposes any tax increase for Social Security.

Monday, February 26, 2007

2008 Update: Obama Trailing in African-American Vote

(Originally published on the Rebirth of Freedom Foundation blog)

As a partaker to the irony of politics, public darling Barack Obama still hasn't garnered a majority of support from black voters. Political analyst and former Clinton advisor Dick Morris reports:

Obama needs to carry the African-American vote overwhelmingly, while Hillary just has to hold her own to blunt the edge of Obama's challenge. As one New York black political leader put it, "Obama needs 85 percent of the black vote. But Hillary only needs 35 percent."

Early primary state South Carolina, where blacks cast more than a third of the vote, looms large. If Obama can't produce big African-American majorities there, his overall ability to win the black vote will be in doubt - leaving him without any obvious base, and in free fall.


Of the democrat's big three (Clinton, Obama, Edwards), Clinton still holds a double-digit lead with likely voters according to the latest Fox News Opinion/Dynamics poll. The similar situation in the GOP with Giuliani creates an intriguing match-up for minority voters. The Clinton years are favorably remembered, and Giuliani is one of the rare pro-affirmative action republicans. In the historically strong-democratic constituency of likely minority voters, this could offset the otherwise possible shift towards even heavier democratic support for Clinton.

Monday, February 5, 2007

2008 Buzz

Forbes gave my #2 pick a nice rundown in the last issue.

Dick Morris has made two interesting forecasts in the past week. The first is that the dark horse candidates trying to catch up by spending Senate time campaigning will have it haunt them. Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan) has missed a whopping number of votes, while Sens. Clinton and Obama have near-perfect records.

The second prediction is in regard to the fading McCain and booming Giuiliani. Rudy has come a step further to candidacy, and the latest Fox News Opinion-Dynamic has him substantially ahead of McCain. Additionally, Morris is very degrading to the odds of Mitt Romney (my pick), and favors Huckabee of the dark horses.